According to @KobeissiLetter, the US hard economic data surprise has risen to +22 points, signaling that recent releases such as nonfarm payrolls, retail sales, and industrial production have been beating consensus estimates, source: @KobeissiLetter. @KobeissiLetter describes this as the US having two economies, with hard data notably outperforming expectations, source: @KobeissiLetter. For trading, the positive hard-data surprise backdrop warrants close monitoring of the US dollar (DXY), US Treasury yields, and BTC and ETH price action into upcoming hard-data releases to manage event risk, source: @KobeissiLetter. Key hard-data catalysts highlighted include nonfarm payrolls and retail sales, which are core components tracked by the surprise measure and can drive near-term volatility across FX, rates, and crypto markets, source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US economic surprise index fell to -23 on Tuesday, marking its lowest level in nine months and the largest drop in three years outside of 2024 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 19, 2025). This sharp decline indicates recent US economic data has consistently missed market expectations. Historically, such downturns in the economic surprise index have heightened volatility in traditional markets, often prompting risk-off sentiment that can impact cryptocurrency prices, especially BTC and ETH, as investors reassess risk exposure. Crypto traders should monitor for increased correlations between major cryptocurrencies and macroeconomic data, as further negative surprises could trigger sell-offs or inflows into crypto as an alternative asset.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US economic surprise index fell to -23 points on Tuesday, marking the lowest level in 9 months and the largest decline outside of 2024 in three years (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, June 19, 2025). This index, which tracks economic data relative to analyst expectations, signals that recent US economic releases have consistently underperformed forecasts. Historically, such negative surprises have weighed on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, as traders anticipate potential monetary policy adjustments or market volatility. Crypto traders should closely monitor macroeconomic data releases and the Federal Reserve’s response, as these could drive significant price action across digital assets.